Monday, September 6, 2010

Where Will the Jobs Come From?

The official unemployment rate in America now is ~10%. Adding underemployment & those disenchanted with the job market, the total may well be close to 20%. That means, 1 in 5 Americans are completely or partially out of the job market.
Our politicians talk about creating jobs...the neocons have only one mantra - tax cuts, more money for business, especially small business, so they'll hire more people. The liberals believe more government intervention. Spend more money,stimulate the economy.
And both groups ignore the essential question: where will the jobs come from? I doubt having more money in the corporate coffers will necessarily result in more hiring. Corporations have amassed huge amounts of cash. They have also learned how to get by with less people. Maybe some small businesses would be more willing to take risks and expand if they had to pay less taxes, but in the end, even in a tough economy, somebody will take the risk & spend the money if they feel the return on investment will be high. The reason small businesses aren't hiring is not taxes but a pessimistic view of the economy. If he return on investment isn't high, even small businesses wil horde the cash if taxes are lower rather than hiring more employees.
And more government spending may result in a transient increase in hiring, but many of these jobs are temporary & unnecessary, & getting into more & more debt to create bloated jobs isn't a great idea either.
Among the major job-creaing sectors in America, manufacturing is on the decline. China has taken over American manufacturing. It will only shrink.
That leaves 3 other (non-governmental) sectors: service; research & development; special talent jobs (athletes, TV anchors, musicians, artists etc) - I'll leave the last segment out because its contribution is miniscule to the whole job market.
I was recently in India. I visited a city called Gurgaon. It is more a mega business park than a city, & most of these offices are either outsourcing companies or offices of foreign companies that have shifted some of their operations there. And these are not just those telemarketing or tech support jobs. Almost all sectors of the service industry is present: accounting, stock market reporting, educational services, customer realtions, advertising, you name it. And Gurgaon is just one of these centers, there are such business complexes all over India. NOIDA. Hitec City, Hyderabad. Bangalore. And other so-called Third World countries are building such centers as well. In addition to services, even some research & development is being outsourced. (And R & D jobs even those remaining in America are ver specialized, they need a master's or Doctorate degree, only a small fraction of the workforce will be eligible for those even if they aren't outsourced).
I won't go into the reasons for outsourcing in detail - we know it is due to cheaper labor, absence of frivolous lawsuits (& wastage of time) over harassment, less absurd environmental regulations & so on. In America a guy makes an off-color joke & the next thing you know someone complains, there is an HR inevstigation, a Disciplinary Action committee, a 6-figure lawsuit, & often the termination or suspension of an experienced employee. Sometimes when I hear about these lawsuits I wonder whether these women grew up under Taliban regime to be so easily offended! Same with racial harassment lawsuits, a well-meaning comment (like calling a Black person articulate) somehow becomes a racist statement! It seems businesses feel even the unions, the corruption, and the slowness of Third World countries are preferable to the lawsuit culture of America.
So the manufacturing sector is out. The service sector is severely endangered. Additionally, technology has made many low-skilled white collar & pink collar jobs obsolete. So where will the jobs come from in America? Oh, I hear nursing is a sector where jobs are plentiful. Oh Great! Out job growth depends upon how much we get sick! And who will pay for nursing care if the Middle Class is disappearing?
Two commentators, Lou Dobbs & Pat Buchanan, have actually identified the dangers of outsourcing jobs en masse to other countries, both economic, as well as security issues & permanent loss of skills. They are 'old-fashioned' conservatives and not the world-changing neocons. Unfortunately, as in many cases, they are slapped on with the labels 'protectionist' & even 'racist'. We would rather get screwed all over than be OMG a nasty protectionist!

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